Historically, the key electoral issues have revolved around enhancing Taiwan’s distinct identity and sovereignty versus improving relations with China. Despite never having ruled Taiwan, which is a democratic island with a population of 24 million, Communist China still asserts sovereignty over it and hasn’t dismissed the possibility of a military invasion. China frequently sends fighter jets into the Taiwan Strait. Concurrently, the United States, Taiwan’s implicit security guarantor, is escalating its military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region with its allies. History
  • After the Communist Party under Mao Zedong took control of mainland China in 1949, Chinese nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek, who were exiled, established a base on Taiwan and declared it the ‘Republic of China’.
  • Initially, this government was supported by the United States and a large part of the West. During the Cold War, Taiwan’s government became a key ally of the United States and took over China’s seat on the UN Security Council.
  • However, in 1979, as part of its efforts to normalize relations with mainland China, the US shifted its recognition from Taipei to Beijing. This led to the adoption of a strategy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan, which continues to this day.
  • Officially, the US recognizes Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China under the ‘one China’ policy, but it maintains close ties with Taiwan.
  • From 1949 to 1996, Taiwan was ruled by a de facto dictatorship under Kai-shek’s KMT. But in 1996, Taiwan held its first direct presidential election. Since then, it has seen three peaceful transfers of power in 2000, 2008, and 2016.
  • Taiwan’s current President, Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP, made history in 2016 by becoming the first woman to be elected to the top office. She is constitutionally barred from running again. Tsai is known for her hard stance on Taiwan’s foreign policy, refusing to acknowledge the 1992 consensus that Taiwan is part of ‘one China’.
  • Tsai initiated a reorganization of Taiwan’s reserve force, intended to support the armed forces in times of conflict, and nearly quadrupled the country’s defense budget. She also extended the mandatory military service period to one year.
  • Furthermore, Tsai made significant investments in Taiwan’s defense sector, including the construction of an in-house submarine and prioritizing drone and missile development.
Candidates
  • The leading candidate in the upcoming election is Lai Ching-te, the successor of Tsai from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Ching-te, a former physician and a ten-year lawmaker, has held numerous significant positions in Taiwanese politics and served as the mayor of Tainan.
  • He is favored by hard-line independence advocates and some centrist voters. However, the DPP’s reputation has suffered after eight years in power, with many young people viewing it as the establishment.
  • Ching-te’s main opponent is Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT). Hou, a former police officer who led Taiwan’s National Police Agency in 2006, is seen as having a “Taiwanese flavor”.
  • Raised among street-market pork vendors in Chiayi, a southern pro-independence stronghold, the KMT hopes that Hou can break the party’s elitist image and appeal to voters outside its traditional base of mainland immigrants and their descendants. Hou advocates for discussions to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait with the Communist Party.
  • Lastly, there is Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Ko, a former physician, ran as an independent for the mayor of Taipei in 2014 and won, despite having no prior political experience.
  • He was re-elected until 2022 and established the TPP four years ago. Portraying himself as a “rational” and “scientific” technocrat, Ko prioritizes local issues like housing and energy over ties with China.
  • While the DPP frames the vote as a choice between “democracy and autocracy”, and the KMT presents it as a matter of “war or peace”, Ko views the election as a competition between “new politics and old forces”.
The China question
  • Despite the ongoing tensions, China remains Taiwan’s largest trade partner, and many Taiwanese have family and business connections across the strait. However, there’s been an increase in the number of people identifying as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.
  • All election contenders aim to maintain Taiwan’s de facto independence, with differing strategies: Lai focuses on strengthening ties with allies, while Hou and Ko emphasize resuming talks with Beijing.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Communist Party is trying to influence the election through social media disinformation, aiming to overthrow Taipei’s ruling party and asserting that democratic Taiwan is part of China.
  • Two recent events have heightened concerns: Beijing’s enactment of a national security law for Hong Kong in 2020, which significantly curtailed political and civil liberties, and Ukraine’s successful defense against Russian aggression, which has inspired Taiwanese leaders.
  • Demographic factors also pose a concern for Beijing: over 60% of Taiwan’s population identifies solely as Taiwanese, 30% as both Taiwanese and Chinese, and only 2.5% as Chinese. For the first time, all presidential contenders are native Taiwanese, indicating their ancestors migrated to the island before the Chinese Civil War.
Conclusion- The upcoming Taiwanese election holds significant implications for the island’s future amidst its complex relationship with China. The election contenders, despite their differing strategies, all aim to maintain Taiwan’s de facto independence. The influence of China, both as a trade partner and a source of political tension, remains a critical factor. The outcome will undoubtedly have far-reaching effects on Taiwan’s political landscape, its relations with China, and its role in global geopolitics.