likely to experience a normal monsoon this year, the private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on tuesday and forecast more rainfall in the second half of the season. Scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have also detected early signs of a favourable monsoon this year with fading El Nino conditions and reduced snow cover over Eurasia. The Met office will issue a monsoon forecast later this month. DOES NORMAL MONSOON MEAN UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED MONSOON? However, normal cumulative rainfall does not mean uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system. Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events — more rain over a short period — are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

THE PREDICTION

  • Skymet said the upcoming monsoon is expected to be “normal”, accounting for 102% (with an error margin of 5%) of the long- period average (lpa) of 6 mm for the four months from June to September.
    • rainfall between 96% and 104% of the lpa is considered normal.
  • Skymet expects sufficiently good rain in the south, west, and northwest
  • The core monsoon rain-fed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall.
  • However, the eastern States of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal are at risk of deficit rainfall during the peak monsoon months of July and August.
  • Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season.